Canada’s top climate policy think tank says the country will miss its 2030 emissions reduction targets. A new report from the Canadian Climate Institute warns that stalled progress and recent policy shifts have left Canada the worst performer in the G7 on climate action.
Emissions Stalled in 2024
The institute’s early analysis shows Canada emitted 694 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2024, the same as 2023. That is equal to the yearly emissions of 146 million gas-powered cars.
While electricity, heavy industry, and buildings saw cuts, these gains were cancelled by a 1.9% rise in oil and gas emissions. That sector now accounts for nearly one-third of Canada’s total emissions.
Transportation emissions, about 23% of the total, remained flat.
Canada pledged to cut emissions 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030. Reaching that target would require annual cuts of 40 million tonnes for the next six years.
Currently, emissions are only 8.5% below 2005 levels. The institute projects reductions of just 20–25% by 2030.
Economist Dave Sawyer said:
“It’s a mix of limited time and technical challenges. The scale of reductions needed is massive.”
He added:
“Oil and gas emissions keep rising, and methane cuts are too slow.”
Policy Shifts Slow Progress
The report points to recent reversals at both federal and provincial levels:
Prime Minister Mark Carney repealed the consumer carbon price and paused the EV mandate.
Saskatchewan extended coal plant operations.
Alberta froze its industrial carbon price until 2026.
“These decisions mean fewer reductions in the future and even rising emissions,” Sawyer said.
Ottawa’s Response
Carney and his ministers have not confirmed whether Canada still aims to meet the 2030 and 2035 targets. However, they insist the government remains committed to net-zero by 2050.
Carney has promised a new plan to make Canada “climate competitive,” though critics argue time is running out.
Canada Falling Behind Peers
Last year, Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco warned that Canada was already on track to miss its climate goals. He said it could take 20–30 more years of work before Canada catches up.
The institute’s report concludes that Canada’s climate momentum is now “fragile” and moving “in the wrong direction.”
