Experts dismiss talk of U.S. military action against Canada as unrealistic, citing NATO ties, shared history, and serious global consequences.
Rumours Rise as U.S. Actions Spark Anxiety
First Venezuela. Then Greenland. Now Canada?
In recent weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump’s bold military move in Venezuela and his sharp words about American dominance have stirred unease well beyond Washington. As a result, online speculation exploded. Some wondered whether Canada could ever face U.S. military pressure.
However, defence experts say that idea belongs firmly in the realm of fiction. In simple terms, they call it far-fetched.
Venezuela Fuels Fears—but Context Matters
On January 3, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a military operation. Because many countries, including Canada, never recognized Maduro’s government, the action shocked but did not surprise foreign policy watchers.
Meanwhile, Trump renewed threats about Greenland, arguing the U.S. must act before rivals like Russia or China do. At the same time, he repeated his vision of restoring American dominance across the Western Hemisphere.
Because of this, polls now show nearly one-third of Canadians believe the U.S. might try “direct action” against Canada. Even so, experts urge calm.
“Off the Table,” Say Defence Experts
Former chief of the defence staff Gen. Tom Lawson did not mince words. According to him, any U.S. military move that puts American troops face-to-face with Canadians simply will not happen.
He explained that such a scenario carries massive risk and zero strategic reward. Therefore, Washington would avoid it at all costs. In addition, he stressed that unpredictability alone makes the idea unworkable.
NATO: The Ultimate Deterrent
Canada’s NATO membership changes everything.
Under NATO’s Article 5, an attack on one member counts as an attack on all. Consequently, a U.S. strike on Canada would trigger a global crisis—one that would instantly shatter the alliance itself.
Even though Trump continues to criticize NATO burden-sharing, he still insists the U.S. will stand by the alliance. Because of that, experts see military action against Canada as self-defeating.
Voices From Washington Agree
Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, also dismissed the idea. He warned that any attack on Canada would destroy NATO and severely weaken the Western world.
Although Bolton described Trump as impulsive, he emphasized that Canada remains safe from military aggression. Still, he cautioned that repeated threats alone damage U.S. credibility and trust.
Take the Rhetoric Seriously—but Not Literally
Some scholars urge vigilance rather than panic.
Henry Giroux of McMaster University said the threat should not be ignored, even if it remains unlikely. He argued that U.S. actions in Venezuela signal a troubling return to militarized politics and economic domination.
Likewise, Roland Paris of the University of Ottawa stressed that Canada and its allies must defend sovereignty and international rules. While he sees no immediate military danger, he warned that economic pressure from Washington remains a real risk.
Canada’s Military Reality Check
Even though an invasion seems unrealistic, Canada faces its own defence challenges.
The Canadian Armed Forces struggle with personnel shortages and aging equipment. Fighter jets and submarines need replacement, and recruitment gaps persist. As of 2024, the military lacked about 16,500 troops.
Recognizing this, Prime Minister Mark Carney approved major pay increases and launched reforms to improve readiness. He also created a new joint forces command to strengthen coordination across the military.
The Bottom Line
Despite fiery rhetoric and global tension, experts agree on one clear point: U.S. military action against Canada is not happening.
History, alliances, shared borders, and simple logic all stand in the way. Still, as world order shifts and rules weaken, Canada and its allies must stay alert, prepared, and united.
