The 2025 election leaves Canada with a Liberal minority, Poilievre defeated, and the NDP weakened—raising big questions about power, stability, and party futures.
With over 19.5 million Canadians casting ballots, the 2025 federal election ended with a Liberal minority victory under new Prime Minister Mark Carney. But the outcome has left Canadians with big questions: What’s next for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party? Can the weakened NDP still influence Parliament? And how does a minority government even work?
Here’s what you need to know in the wake of one of Canada’s most dramatic elections in years.
What is a Minority Government — and Why Does It Matter?
Carney’s Liberals secured 169 seats, falling just short of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. In a minority government, the ruling party must rely on other parties to pass legislation and avoid triggering another election.
That leaves the Liberals needing the support of at least one other party — most likely the Bloc Québécois (22 seats) or the New Democrats (7 seats) — to maintain power.
The Bloc Signals Cooperation — With Conditions
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has suggested a willingness to cooperate, calling for a “truce” in which the Liberals show respect for Quebec’s language, secularism, and immigration policies.
“I don’t see any scenario happening other than collaboration — for at least a year,” Blanchet told reporters, signaling potential stability for Carney’s government, at least in the short term.
NDP Loses Official Party Status — and Its Leader
The New Democratic Party suffered a devastating blow, dropping to just seven seats — below the 12-seat threshold needed for official party status in the House. That means fewer resources, diminished committee roles, and less speaking time in Parliament.
To make matters worse, Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and has announced he will step down once an interim leader is in place.
“New Democrats will still fight for everyday people,” said NDP MP-elect Jenny Kwan, dismissing speculation about defecting to the Liberals.
While crossing the floor is legally possible, Kwan reaffirmed her loyalty to the party the next day.
Could NDP MPs Cross the Floor to the Liberals?
It’s unlikely — but not impossible. With the Liberals only three seats shy of a majority, even a small shift in allegiance could significantly alter the balance of power. However, public statements from NDP MPs suggest they intend to hold their ground and act as a progressive check on the government.
Poilievre Defeated in Carleton — Conservative Party in Limbo
In one of the biggest election night shocks, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario, to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy by over 3,000 votes.
While Poilievre remains party leader, he can’t serve as Leader of the Opposition without a seat in the House. A caucus-appointed interim leader will step in on the parliamentary front, though Poilievre may continue living at Stornoway, the official residence of the opposition leader, if caucus agrees.
Poilievre could re-enter Parliament through a byelection if a Conservative MP resigns — a strategy previously used by party leaders in similar situations.
But his future is far from secure. With the Conservatives failing to win government, Poilievre now faces a leadership review at the next party convention. Under the Reform Act, his MPs also have the power to remove him as leader if they vote to do so.
What Comes Next for Mark Carney and the Liberals?
Carney’s first major tasks include:
- Appointing a new cabinet
- Drafting a speech from the throne to outline government priorities
- Introducing a federal budget, which was delayed earlier this year
Both the throne speech and budget are considered confidence votes. Without support from either the Bloc or NDP, Carney risks triggering another election mere months after the last.
Canada’s Political Landscape: Unstable, but Not Gridlocked
Despite the Liberals falling short of a majority, experts say the new Parliament could function relatively smoothly — if Carney navigates the political minefield carefully. With the Bloc open to collaboration and the NDP looking to maintain relevance despite losing party status, alliances could shift with every vote.
The next few months will test Carney’s leadership and define the future of both the Conservative Party and the fractured NDP.
