Polls plummet. Party status hangs by a thread. But the NDP leader isn’t backing down.
It was a classic Vancouver morning — grey skies, cold drizzle, and a press conference under umbrellas. But beneath the damp weather, the heat was unmistakable.
Standing with a handful of NDP candidates, Jagmeet Singh was there to talk about affordable housing. Yet, the headlines weren’t about policy. They were about the future — or possible downfall — of his party.
A Slippery Slope for the NDP
The numbers speak louder than campaign promises. In 2021, the New Democratic Party won 25 seats — a solid showing, bolstered by strong roots in British Columbia. Fast forward to April 2025, and polls suggest the party could capture as few as four seats nationally.
That’s still up from the projected one seat just a week earlier, but it’s a far cry from what’s needed. A party needs 12 elected MPs to hold official party status in the House of Commons — a benchmark the NDP is currently falling short of.
Singh’s Personal Battle: Can He Keep His Seat?
Reporters pressed Singh on whether he could retain his own riding of Burnaby Central, where polls show Liberal challenger Wade Chang in the lead.
His response? Confident but carefully worded.
“Absolutely. I’m confident that I’ll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central,” Singh stated, sidestepping the growing unease surrounding the numbers.
Still, political observers and even loyal supporters are beginning to wonder — is Singh’s confidence enough to sway voters this time?
A Shift in Strategy: From PM Dreams to Holding Ground
Notably absent from Singh’s recent speeches is the phrase “next prime minister of Canada.” That ambition has quietly morphed into a campaign to simply elect more NDP MPs, a pivot signaling the party’s reevaluation of its current political standing.
Adding salt to the wound, high-profile endorsements have swung the other way. Former NDP MP Murray Rankin publicly backed Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed in Vancouver Granville. And in a pointed op-ed, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair acknowledged that the upcoming election is a “two-horse race”, with even diehard NDP voters preparing to cast ballots for the Liberals.
“We Want Our Votes to Count” — The Rise of Strategic Voting
According to political analyst Sanjay Jeram of Simon Fraser University, the NDP’s decline can be chalked up to three core issues:
- Tariff-based economic concerns,
- Voter urgency to make their ballots count, and
- Leadership fatigue — Singh is now the longest-serving leader among the three major parties.
“The NDP hasn’t formed government since Singh became leader in 2017,” Jeram explained. “And voters are gravitating toward the parties they believe can best tackle pressing national challenges.”
That belief is reshaping voting behaviour. Vancouver resident Al Henry put it plainly:
“I’d vote NDP if I thought they could win. But I want my vote to matter. I’m voting to stop Poilievre.”
Jeram sees this as part of a broader pattern: strategic voting based on perceived impact, not ideology.
Final Stretch: Will the NDP Defy the Forecast or Face a Reckoning?
Despite the mounting pressure, Singh is doubling down — sticking to the core issues and urging Canadians to send more NDP voices to Ottawa.
But with official party status in question and confidence fading in key strongholds, the 2025 federal election could mark a pivotal turning point for the New Democrats.
Can Jagmeet Singh weather this political storm — or is the orange wave losing its momentum for good?
