Leaked 2021 scoring reveals the F-35 far outperformed Sweden’s Gripen, raising fresh questions as Canada reviews its multibillion-dollar jet contract.
F-35 Dominated Gripen in 2021 Evaluation, Data Shows
How the Assessment Emerged
Newly obtained Defence Department data reveals the American-built F-35 overwhelmingly outperformed Sweden’s Gripen during Canada’s 2021 fighter jet competition — a key process that shaped Ottawa’s multi-billion-dollar procurement. The information, released to media this week, shows how evaluators judged both aircraft’s strengths and weaknesses at the time of review.
Why the Jet Ranked Higher
According to internal scoring, the F-35 achieved 95 per cent on military capability metrics, earning 57.1 out of 60 points. The Gripen-E scored 19.8 points, or 33 per cent. The evaluation measured each aircraft’s potential to defend North America, succeed in modern combat scenarios and adapt to future technological demands. The wide margin was driven by significant gaps in mission performance and long-term upgrade potential.
Reactions from Defence Experts
Several defence analysts say the figures help explain why the government ultimately reversed its initial opposition to buying the F-35. Analysts argue the assessment shows a decisive result, describing the F-35’s stealth, sensor fusion and interoperability advantages as unmatched. Others, however, contend the competition’s criteria favoured the F-35 from the outset and caution that development delays could affect promised capabilities.
Government Position Under Review
Ottawa awarded the contract for 88 F-35s to Lockheed Martin in 2022, now valued at more than $27 billion. However, the Carney government has launched a formal review of the purchase following concerns about economic offsets after U.S. trade disputes intensified. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly signalled last week that Canada may consider shifting part of its fleet to Gripens if Lockheed Martin cannot increase industrial benefits for Canadian workers and manufacturers.
Company Responses and Concerns
Saab, which had not previously seen the final 2021 scores, defended the Gripen’s design as adaptable, cost-effective and optimized for rapid upgrades — including in Arctic conditions. Lockheed Martin, while not commenting on the scoring, reaffirmed that the F-35 remains the most capable option for Canada and emphasized long-term economic benefits, including more than $15 billion in projected industrial activity tied to global production.
Implications for Canada’s Future Fleet
Canada has so far placed firm orders for 16 F-35s. Officials say a mixed fleet remains possible, particularly if Gripens are assembled domestically as part of Saab’s proposal promising up to 10,000 Canadian jobs. Defence experts, however, warn that fleet decisions should be based on military needs rather than economic incentives. Some argue that any diversification should align with future plans for integrating advanced drones and next-generation air systems.
What Comes Next
The government’s review continues as the first aircraft move toward delivery timelines. Decisions on whether to fully commit to the F-35, incorporate Gripens, or pursue a long-term mixed approach are expected to shape Canada’s air defence strategy for decades. Former senior officers say Canada could consider maintaining F-35 purchases while exploring a supplementary fleet, though the outcome will hinge on capability, cost and Canada’s evolving security priorities.
