Ontario government, led by Doug Ford, will present its 2025-26 budget on May 15, navigating economic uncertainty fueled by U.S. tariffs. Job losses and a possible shift from deficit reduction goals loom as key issues in this first budget since the recent majority win.
Ontario’s Budget Set for May 15 Reveal
Ontario’s government confirmed it will table the province’s 2025-26 budget on May 15, marking the first financial plan since Premier Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government in February. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is expected to preview key spending measures in a May 12 speech at the Empire Club of Canada.
Trade War Fallout Casts Shadow Over Fiscal Plans
A recent report from Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures, projecting a loss of approximately 68,100 jobs in Ontario this year alone. The ongoing trade tensions, initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump, are expected to raise the province’s unemployment rate by 1.1% between 2025 and 2029 compared to a no-tariff scenario.
Balancing Priorities Amid Economic Headwinds
Premier Ford has acknowledged the challenging economic landscape, suggesting the government may delay its goal of balancing the budget by 2026-27. “There’s a time to balance, and times when we might need a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said, signaling a possible shift toward increased spending to address economic pressures.
Deficit Forecasts and Economic Uncertainty
Prior to the trade war escalation, the government projected a $1.5-billion deficit for this spring’s budget, with a modest surplus expected the following year. However, the FAO warns that the true economic impact of tariffs remains uncertain and will depend on their scope, duration, and the responses of businesses and consumers.
As Ontario prepares to navigate these turbulent economic waters, the May 15 budget will be a critical indicator of the government’s strategy to sustain growth and protect jobs. Would you like insights on how these tariffs might affect specific industries or what sectors could see increased government support?
