Canada Identified as Most At-Risk U.S. Ally
A leading political risk firm has warned that Canada faces the greatest exposure to instability in the United States.
Eurasia Group says no other country will feel U.S. political changes as deeply as Canada in 2026.
The assessment appears in the firm’s annual global risk outlook.
It highlights Canada’s heavy reliance on the U.S. for trade, security, and investment.
U.S. Political Shifts Raise Red Flags
The report links Canada’s risk to intensifying political turmoil in Washington.
It points to sharp policy shifts and growing internal divisions in the United States.
Eurasia Group says recent U.S. leadership trends have weakened institutional stability.
These changes increase uncertainty for close allies like Canada.
The firm warns that traditional diplomatic norms are breaking down.
This makes long-standing partnerships harder to manage and predict.
Trade Tensions Add Economic Pressure
Canada’s economy remains tightly connected to the U.S. market.
Any disruption in U.S. policy directly affects Canadian industries.
The report notes rising trade friction since the last U.S. election.
Tariffs on steel, aluminum, automotive goods, and lumber have strained relations.
Canadian exporters now face unpredictable regulatory decisions.
Businesses struggle to plan amid sudden policy reversals from Washington.
Eurasia Group says efforts to diversify trade will not deliver quick relief.
The U.S. will remain Canada’s dominant economic partner.
Strategic Challenges for Ottawa
The report urges Canada to prepare for a more volatile relationship.
It says Ottawa must defend national interests without escalating tensions.
Canada will need to strengthen global partnerships beyond North America.
At the same time, it must manage security and trade ties with the U.S.
Eurasia Group describes the situation as part of a wider global power shift.
No single country now guarantees international stability.
For Canada, this means navigating uncertainty at its closest border.
The coming years may test the resilience of the Canada-U.S. relationship.
