Canada models U.S. invasion scenarios, exploring guerrilla tactics and homeland defense, though experts stress an actual attack is extremely unlikely.
Canadian Military Models Unthinkable: A U.S. Invasion
For the first time in a century, Canada’s armed forces have modeled a hypothetical U.S. invasion, envisioning how the country might respond. While the idea sounds like a plot from a thriller, officials stress this is purely conceptual—there’s no plan to fight the world’s most powerful military.
Instead, the military is exploring unconventional tactics, drawing inspiration from the Afghan mujahedeen and Taliban, including ambushes, sabotage, and hit-and-run operations. Small groups of armed civilians or irregular forces would aim to slow an occupying army, much like insurgents did in Afghanistan.
Why Canada Is Thinking About This
The modeling comes amid tensions over Greenland, which U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the U.S. should acquire. He has also mused about Canada becoming the 51st state and voiced concerns over Canadian Arctic defenses.
Officials say planners envision a U.S. invasion from the south, potentially overwhelming Canada’s strategic positions within days. Yet, they emphasize an actual invasion is highly improbable. Relations with the U.S. military remain positive, and both nations are cooperating on continental defense initiatives, including the new “Golden Dome” system to counter Russian or Chinese missile threats.
The Unconventional Playbook
Canada’s military lacks the personnel and heavy equipment needed to repel a conventional U.S. attack. That’s why the focus is on unconventional warfare. Officials and retired generals suggest tactics could mirror Afghanistan-era operations: ambushes, sabotage, drones, and improvised explosives.
Retired Major-General David Fraser points out that Canada could use drones and anti-tank weapons like Ukraine did against Russia, while also relying on international support from Britain, Germany, Japan, and other allies.
Preparing for the Worst, Hoping for the Best
While the threat of a U.S. invasion is extremely low, Canada is taking homeland defense seriously. Military planners envision up to three months to prepare if the threat were real, potentially mobilizing volunteers and reserve forces. Experts say a conventional invasion would be impossible to repel fully, but insurgency tactics could make occupation costly and slow.
Political scientists and defense experts agree: even if a U.S. attack is unlikely, Canada must strengthen its defense posture to signal that it can defend itself effectively. Doing so acts as a deterrent and ensures national security without triggering conflict.
A Global Backstop
Canada would not stand alone. Retired officials note that a serious threat could draw global support. European nations, NATO allies, and other democratic countries would likely assist, reinforcing Canadian sovereignty. The message is clear: Canada may not be able to defeat a superpower in open battle, but occupying it would be far from easy.
Bottom Line:
Canada’s military is playing out a worst-case scenario that most consider implausible, but the exercise underscores the need for strong homeland defense. Guerrilla tactics, international support, and rapid response planning would be central to any real defense effort—just in case.
