Palantir’s Record Quarter Meets Market Reality
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) delivered yet another record-breaking quarter, powered by surging demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) software. Still, despite smashing Wall Street’s expectations, the company’s stock slipped in after-hours trading — a reminder that even stellar results can’t always outshine sky-high investor expectations.
The data analytics and AI powerhouse reported $1.18 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 63% year over year, and an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.21, easily topping analyst forecasts of $1.1 billion in revenue and $0.17 EPS, according to FactSet.
Fueled by its AI expansion, Palantir boosted its full-year revenue outlook to about $4.40 billion for fiscal 2025, up from previous guidance of $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion.
Yet, after an early 7% spike in extended trading, the stock reversed course, finishing down 4.3%.
Why Investors Weren’t Impressed
Market experts say Palantir’s drop reflects “valuation fatigue,” not weak performance. Jake Behan, head of capital markets at Direxion, explained it best: “At this valuation, even great numbers don’t move the needle. The bar is sky high and not an easy one to clear, even for Palantir.”
Currently, the company trades at a staggering forward price-to-earnings ratio of 253, highlighting how much future growth is already priced into its stock. Investors appear wary, even as Palantir keeps hitting new highs.
U.S. Commercial Segment Powers Growth
One standout from the quarter: Palantir’s U.S. commercial business. Once reliant on government contracts, the company is now driven by private-sector demand — with U.S. commercial revenue soaring 121% year over year.
Ryan Taylor, Palantir’s chief revenue and legal officer, told MarketWatch that the domestic market now makes up 75% of total revenue. “We’re prioritizing home turf,” Taylor said.
For the fourth straight quarter, Palantir’s U.S. commercial division outpaced its U.S. government segment — a significant shift that underscores how the company’s AI tools are spreading beyond defense and intelligence work.
AIP: Palantir’s Secret Weapon
Much of Palantir’s current success revolves around its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which has quickly become a major revenue driver.
According to Taylor, AIP is “the only platform delivering transformational impact in this market.” Businesses are turning to it to make faster, data-driven decisions, a trend that’s accelerated as companies race to integrate AI into daily operations.
Wall Street’s Mixed Feelings
Despite Palantir’s growth story, analyst sentiment remains split. Only 24% of analysts tracked by FactSet rate the stock a “buy” or equivalent. Concerns linger over its steep valuation and long-term reliance on government partnerships, even as commercial business expands.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke had questioned whether Palantir could sustain its momentum after surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time last quarter — a milestone it has now comfortably exceeded.
Still, skepticism persists among institutional investors.
The Power of Retail Investors
What traditional investors doubt, retail investors celebrate. CEO Alex Karp proudly credits Palantir’s loyal fanbase for fueling its rise.
“People who are most excited about our results in America now are average Americans,” Karp told MarketWatch. In his shareholder letter, he wrote that Palantir has “made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists in Palo Alto.”
Indeed, shares have climbed from $10 at its 2020 direct listing to over $207, making early believers some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom.
Palantir’s latest results signal one thing clearly: AI demand isn’t slowing down. Yet, even as the company posts record revenue and stronger forecasts, it’s battling the heavy weight of investor expectations.
The takeaway? Palantir remains a leader in AI-driven software, but its greatest challenge might not be growth — it’s convincing Wall Street that more upside still exists.
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