As Trudeau reflects on his unfulfilled electoral reform promise, experts say ranked ballots might have changed the 2025 election outcome and boosted smaller parties.
As he prepares to step down, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has reflected on what he sees as one of his biggest missed opportunities: electoral reform. In particular, he regrets not delivering on his promise to change how Canadians vote — a pledge he first made in 2015.
“I wish we had changed our voting system so people could rank their choices,” Trudeau said earlier this year. “It would have encouraged parties to focus more on common ground and less on division.”
What Is a Ranked Ballot System?
Also known as the “alternative vote,” ranked ballots allow voters to list candidates in order of preference. If no one gets more than 50% of the vote right away, the least popular candidates are removed, and their supporters’ second (or third) choices are redistributed until a candidate crosses the majority mark.
The idea has been floated in Canada before. In fact, Trudeau’s government explored electoral reform in 2016 but dropped the plan after disagreements within the Liberal Party about the best replacement for the current system.
Would It Have Made a Difference in 2025?
According to experts, yes — especially in tight races.
Dennis Pilon, a political science professor at York University, says the current system hurt smaller parties like the NDP in the recent election. He points to the Nanaimo–Ladysmith riding, where the Conservative candidate won with just 35% of the vote. Meanwhile, the NDP, Liberals, and Greens combined for over 60%. With ranked ballots, second-choice votes could have shifted the outcome.
“Voters weren’t necessarily abandoning the NDP or Greens,” Pilon said. “They were just trying to stop another party from winning.”
NDP’s Major Loss Raises Questions
The 2025 election hit the NDP hard. The party lost most of its seats, dropping from 24 to just seven, which cost them official party status. Many voters on social media expressed frustration, saying ranked ballots could have protected progressive voices in Parliament.
Strategic voting — where people choose the “lesser evil” instead of their true preference — is risky. “It’s hard to vote strategically without knowing how everyone else will vote,” Pilon explained. “And that kind of precise data isn’t available at the local level.”
Could Liberals Have Secured a Majority?
Liberal candidates may have benefited the most from a ranked system. The party won 169 seats — just three shy of a majority. Political science professor Lydia Miljan says in ridings where three parties split the vote, a few extra second-choice preferences could have pushed the Liberals over the line.
“In those close races, ranked ballots might have handed the Liberals a slim majority,” she said.
Not Everyone’s Sold on the Idea
While some view ranked ballots as a fairer way to vote, others are skeptical. Pilon points out that the system still favors bigger parties — just in a different way than the current one. Reformers often argue for proportional representation instead, where seats are awarded based on a party’s overall share of the vote.
Despite the renewed interest, Liberal leader Mark Carney has made it clear that electoral reform isn’t a priority for his government.
