Mark Carney’s Liberals may have secured a national win in the 2025 federal election, but a central campaign theme — framing U.S. President Donald Trump as a threat to Canada’s economic future — failed to resonate in the very ridings most affected by U.S. trade tensions.
Despite frequent warnings from Carney about Trump’s tariffs and protectionist policies, the Liberals suffered defeats in several key manufacturing and border communities that had long been battlegrounds for working-class voters. These seats, had they stayed red, could have tipped the balance toward a Liberal majority.
“We will build an independent future for our great country,” Carney declared in his victory speech, doubling down on his anti-Trump messaging. “Vive le Canada.”
But voters in industrial heartlands like Niagara, Hamilton, and Windsor appeared to prioritize more immediate economic concerns — especially affordability and housing — over international trade disputes.
Niagara South: Trade Woes vs. Kitchen Table Concerns
In Niagara South, a riding freshly redrawn from what was once Niagara Centre, Conservative Fred Davies ousted Liberal incumbent Vance Badawey in a tight race. The region, historically a blue-collar Liberal-NDP stronghold, sits directly on the U.S. border and has deep ties to manufacturing — an industry vulnerable to U.S. tariffs.
Davies acknowledged that while Trump’s trade threats made headlines, affordability and cost-of-living concerns ultimately swayed voters.
“We lost an entire generation of young people who couldn’t afford a home,” Davies told Maple News Wire. “That message hit home more than anything else.”
Polling analyst Dan Arnold, formerly of Trudeau’s campaign team and now with Pollara Strategic Insights, said it was expected the Liberals would perform well in trade-exposed ridings. But the cost-of-living crisis proved more pressing.
“Housing prices skyrocketed in these communities. That’s what people felt every day — not the tariffs,” Arnold noted.
Hamilton East: Urban Shift, Conservative Gain
Down the Queen Elizabeth Way in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, Liberal Chad Collins lost his seat to Conservative Ned Kuruc, despite a stronger showing in the vote share compared to 2021. The riding, which underwent redistribution, now includes more suburban and rural areas.
Former deputy prime minister Sheila Copps, who once represented Hamilton East, said the new boundaries played a key role.
“It’s no longer just an urban riding. The demographics have shifted,” Copps said.
Davies also pointed to the Conservatives’ growing appeal to private-sector unions, crediting former leader Pierre Poilievre for outreach efforts that resonated with blue-collar workers.
Windsor Turns Blue for the First Time in 95 Years
Perhaps the most stunning upset came in Windsor, long regarded as a fortress for the NDP and Liberals.
In Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk narrowly lost to Conservative Kathy Borrelli. Meanwhile, in Windsor West, long-time NDP MP Brian Masse was toppled by Conservative Harb Gill, completing a historic Conservative sweep of the region — the first since 1930.
University of Windsor political scientist Lydia Miljan described the outcome as “shocking,” attributing the Conservative gains to a collapse of NDP support and a well-executed ground game.
“They pulled labour votes away from the NDP. That made the difference,” Miljan said.
Strategic Losses Blocked Liberal Majority
Analysts agree that had Kusmierczyk, Collins, and Badawey held their seats, the Liberals would have crossed the threshold into majority territory — even if just barely.
Yet despite the losses, Carney’s message about standing firm against Trump appeared to move the needle in terms of vote share. All three defeated Liberals actually improved their performance compared to the last election.
Still, it wasn’t enough to counter the Conservatives’ blue-collar momentum.
“There are orange-blue switchers — union voters who historically backed the NDP but chose Conservatives over Liberals this time,” said Arnold. “In places like Niagara and Hamilton, that made all the difference.”
Conclusion: Affordability Over Foreign Affairs
The 2025 election results offer a clear takeaway: while international diplomacy plays well on national stages, voters in Canada’s industrial belt are more likely to be swayed by domestic economic realities — especially housing, inflation, and wages.
The Liberals may have won the war, but in these key ridings on the front lines of the trade war, they lost the battle. And those losses may haunt the party as they navigate a minority government with a slim mandate.
