Dalhousie researchers predict Canadian grocery prices will rise 4–6% in 2026, led by surging beef costs and tighter meat supply nationwide.
Dalhousie Warns Canadians of 2026 Grocery Price Surge
New Forecast Signals Another Expensive Year
Dalhousie University researchers are warning that food prices across Canada could rise between 4% and 6% in 2026, according to the latest edition of Canada’s Food Price Report. The forecast, released this week, outlines what Canadians should expect as grocery costs continue climbing into the new year.
Meat Prices Expected to Lead the Increase
Beef is projected to see the sharpest jump, with prices possibly rising up to 7%. Researchers say the increase stems from shrinking cattle sizes, a decline in ranchers, and a market increasingly exposed to tariffs and supply constraints. The report notes that this tighter supply could last through 2027, though Canada has increased beef imports to ease the pressure.
Ripple Effects Hitting Other Proteins
The report explains how higher beef prices are prompting Canadians to shift toward alternative meats, especially chicken. Sylvain Charlebois, director of Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab and lead author of the report, says this behaviour change is already pushing chicken prices upward, meaning the entire meat category will likely become more expensive.
Pantry Staples Won’t Offer Relief
Items typically found in the centre aisles—such as canned goods and shelf-stable ingredients—are also expected to see price increases. After years of flat or slow price growth, these staples will no longer act as an affordable fallback for households seeking refuge from inflation. The report attributes this shift to manufacturing changes, trade tensions, and broader economic pressures.
Trade Disputes and Labour Conditions Adding Strain
Researchers say the ongoing Canada–U.S. trade dispute, along with labour shortages and changes within the food-processing sector, will continue to influence grocery prices in 2026. These underlying pressures are expected to keep food inflation elevated, even as the broader economy stabilizes.
Food Banks Reporting Record Demand
Food Banks Canada estimates that roughly one-quarter of Canadians now live in food-insecure households. At the Daily Bread Food Bank in Toronto, CEO Neil Hetherington says demand has climbed to 330,000 monthly clients, compared with about 60,000 before the pandemic. Despite serving more people, Hetherington notes they are not distributing significantly more food—just accommodating more families in need.
Shoppers Adjusting to Rising Costs
Many Canadians say they are already altering their shopping habits. Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi says she’s considering reducing meat consumption to cut costs. Another resident, Giacomo LoGiacco, says inflation leaves little room for flexibility: “I work full-time and still live paycheque to paycheque,” he said, explaining that he now buys only basic items like milk, eggs and bread—and only when they are on sale.
A Difficult Year Ahead for Households
With prices steadily increasing since April 2024, Dalhousie’s report signals that 2026 will likely bring another challenging year for families already feeling the strain. The researchers conclude that Canadians should expect ongoing pressure on meat, packaged goods and other food essentials as supply constraints and economic forces continue to shape the market.
