China surpasses the U.S. as the top importer of Canadian oil via Trans Mountain, reshaping global crude flows amid shifting trade and sanctions.
A shift in global energy dynamics is underway as China emerges as the leading buyer of Canadian oil transported through the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX), defying early expectations and highlighting the impact of geopolitical trade shifts.
Ship tracking data indicates China has imported an average of 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) via TMX since the pipeline expansion went live in mid-2024 — a dramatic increase from the mere 7,000 bpd average over the previous decade.
The $34-Billion Game-Changer: TMX Expansion
The Trans Mountain expansion, launched on May 1, 2024, tripled the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 bpd, enabling landlocked Alberta crude to reach Pacific tidewaters. It offered Canadian producers long-awaited access to Asian markets beyond the traditional U.S. routes.
Previously, over 90 per cent of Canada’s 4 million bpd oil exports flowed south to American refineries. Now, TMX is rewriting that map.
Geopolitics Fueling Energy Realignments
The surge in Chinese interest comes in the backdrop of strained U.S.-Canada relations during Donald Trump’s presidency and mounting sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude. Oil remains exempt from tariffs, but Canada has strategically pushed to diversify its export portfolio in recent years.
“China is actively reducing its reliance on Russian supplies and avoiding the U.S. sanctions web,” said Philippe Rheault, director at the China Institute, University of Alberta. “Canadian oil is increasingly viewed as a stable alternative.”
Asian Markets Embrace Alberta Oil
Alongside China, nations like Japan, South Korea, India, Brunei, and Taiwan have begun receiving Canadian shipments, driven by the TMX’s Pacific outlet. Canadian crude exports to non-U.S. destinations jumped 60 per cent year-over-year in 2024 — reaching a record average of 183,000 bpd.
In contrast, U.S. buyers averaged just 173,000 bpd from TMX during the same period.
Capacity Constraints and Future Expansion Plans
Despite a record year, TMX was only 77 per cent utilized in 2024 — short of the projected 83 per cent. Analysts link this to high toll fees imposed to recover massive construction cost overruns.
Looking ahead, the operator, Trans Mountain Corp, plans to add 200,000–300,000 bpd of capacity. Experts predict most of that future volume will head west — not south.
“Virtually all of those incremental vessels are going to China,” said Skip York, chief energy strategist at Turner, Mason & Company.
Canada’s Energy Policy at a Crossroads
Calls for further pipeline development to diversify markets have resurfaced in Canadian politics. However, financial, regulatory, and environmental challenges continue to slow new projects.
As China reshapes the trajectory of Canadian energy exports, one thing is clear: global oil flows are no longer predictable — and Canada is becoming a key pivot point.
Stay tuned to Maple News Wire for more developments in global trade and energy trends.
