Israel’s Offensive Reveals Gaps in Iran’s Firepower

Just one week into Israel’s largest-ever assault on Iran, the battlefield is already tilting dramatically. In military terms, Israel has moved swiftly, taking control of Iran’s skies and leaving Tehran struggling to mount an effective counteroffensive.

Israel claims to have disabled 120 Iranian air defense systems—roughly a third of the country’s total capacity—in just hours through coordinated drone and air strikes. This quick domination has allowed Israeli aircraft to operate over western and central Iran with little resistance.

Iran’s Ballistic Missiles: Potent but Diminishing

Tehran’s main response has come in the form of its high-speed ballistic missiles. At the start of the conflict, Israel estimated Iran had a stockpile of around 2,000 missiles. Since then, Iran has launched over 400 missiles, including a sharp initial retaliation of about 200 last Friday.

However, the volume of daily missile launches has dropped—from 40 over the weekend to just 15–20 in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War. A key reason is that Israel has heavily targeted Iran’s launch facilities, including underground bases in Kermanshah, as well as successfully carrying out targeted killings of top Iranian military leaders.

Iran’s missile production capacity—estimated at only 50 new units per month—adds to the concern that its strike capability could quickly fade without outside support.

What’s Still Getting Through?

While most missiles are intercepted, 10% still breach Israel’s defense systems. These strikes have caused casualties and damage, including a hit on Beersheba’s Soroka Medical Center, which wounded 76 people on Thursday.

However, aside from a notable attack on a refinery in Haifa, the missiles aren’t crippling Israeli military or industrial infrastructure—yet. That might change if more of Iran’s remaining arsenal hits high-value targets.

Israel’s Shield: Effective but Costly

Intercepting ballistic missiles is no easy feat. Israel relies heavily on its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 air defense systems, which can intercept missiles even beyond Earth’s atmosphere.

The Arrow 3 interceptor alone costs up to $3.5 million per unit, and estimates suggest Israel has spent over $1 billion on these systems since October 2023. The U.S. is also backing Israel, providing additional missile defense support via THAAD systems and Navy destroyers in the Mediterranean.

Still, one looming question remains: how many interceptors does Israel have left? While exact numbers are classified, a Wall Street Journal report quoted a U.S. official suggesting Israel might be running low. Manufacturing new interceptors is not fast—a lesson already evident in Ukraine.

Israel’s Gains: Fast, Precise, and Unmatched

Israel’s military progress has exceeded even its own forecasts. In the first 24 hours alone, it eliminated 21 out of 22 senior Iranian military commanders and 10 of 12 key nuclear scientists. So far, it has lost only one drone, allowing its jets to continue operations with near-complete air superiority.

Even if offensive missile stockpiles dwindle, Israel’s air dominance enables it to slow the pace without losing strategic momentum—continuing to strike targets deep inside Iran almost at will.

Could the Tide Still Turn?

While Iran’s shortcomings are clear, the situation isn’t static. Experts caution that if more of Iran’s remaining missiles start hitting key Israeli sites or population centers, the conflict could shift.

As missile analyst Fabian Hinz notes, Israel is currently accepting the risk of continued missile strikes in exchange for strategic gains. But the fragile deterrence balance between the two countries could tip again—if Iran adapts or outside players intervene.

For now, Israel appears ahead. But in a region where momentum can flip overnight, the final outcome is still far from certain.

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