Calls grow for a new oil pipeline from Alberta, but without a proposal or public support, will a ‘grand bargain’ like Trudeau’s ever succeed again?
Political Push Sparks Pipeline Debate
At Monday’s question period in Ottawa, two Conservative MPs pushed for immediate approval of a new oil pipeline out of Alberta. Foothills MP John Barlow directly challenged the Prime Minister, asking if he would greenlight a pipeline during that day’s first ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon.
However, there is currently no formal proposal for a new pipeline under review. The ministers’ meeting was not focused on pipelines but rather on “nation-building” infrastructure, broadly defined to include rail, ports, and energy transmission lines.
A Nod to Pipelines in Federal Messaging
Though no approval was granted, the meeting’s communique included support for expanding access to international markets through projects like pipelines. It emphasized urgency in delivering Canadian resources — including “decarbonized” oil — to global buyers in Asia and Europe.
This language rekindled the debate over whether Canada needs another major energy corridor — and what political conditions would make that possible.
Corridor Vision and the Pathways Alliance
Mark Carney, a likely future Liberal leader, floated the idea of a Pacific-to-Nunavut “corridor” for resource transport, hinting at room for a decarbonized oil pipeline. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith took it further, advocating a new “grand bargain”: public support for pipelines in exchange for climate initiatives like carbon capture, led by the oil industry’s Pathways Alliance.
This echoes a similar deal made under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who linked carbon pricing to pipeline expansion, eventually acquiring and completing the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project.
History Repeats with Higher Stakes
Trudeau’s grand bargain did deliver both climate policies and a finished pipeline. But it cost political capital, and critics still branded him anti-oil. Now, with Trudeau leaving office and support for the federal carbon tax weakening, the Conservatives see an opportunity to restart pipeline ambitions.
Yet past obstacles remain. The Northern Gateway pipeline was approved by the Harper government with 209 conditions and was later overturned due to Indigenous consultation failures. A similar fate could await any future project without broad consensus.
Conditions for a Real Grand Bargain
While Smith envisions a private proponent stepping forward, there’s no active investor backing such a pipeline. And her demands — including scrapping emissions caps, repealing carbon pricing, and reversing clean electricity rules — would effectively gut current climate policy, making public buy-in for another pipeline unlikely.
Critics also challenge the idea of “decarbonized oil” as a contradiction. Even with carbon capture incentives, emissions from oil production have soared. Since 1994, oil sands emissions alone have grown tenfold, and the oil and gas sector now contributes 30% of Canada’s total emissions.
The Bigger Picture: Nation-Building Through Climate Action
As Carney positions himself for possible leadership, he may aim to craft a more sustainable version of Trudeau’s bargain — one that balances energy needs with real climate progress. But with polarized politics, environmental urgency, and economic uncertainty, any new pipeline deal would require not just support from premiers, but a durable national consensus.
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