Declining Canadian travel has triggered a $5.7B U.S. tourism loss, threatening jobs and revenues across America’s top visitor destinations.
Canadian Visits Drop, U.S. Tourism Takes the Hit
The United States is facing a major tourism setback as Canadian travellers continue to avoid visiting south of the border. A new report from the U.S. Travel Association projects a 3.2 per cent decline in international tourism spending in 2025, translating into a $5.7 billion US loss compared with 2024.
The association attributes much of the downturn to a sharp fall in Canadian visitors—a trend that began when President Donald Trump returned to office in January and reignited trade tensions with Canada.
Sharp Decline by Air and Land
Recent data show a steep decline in cross-border travel. In October, the number of Canadian return trips to the United States fell 24 per cent by air and 30 per cent by land compared with the same month last year. The decrease marks ten consecutive months of decline, erasing much of the rebound seen after the pandemic.
Canadians have historically represented the largest group of foreign visitors to the United States—28 per cent of 72.4 million tourists in 2024—but this share has dropped dramatically in 2025.
Economic Fallout Across Key States
Experts warn that the contraction is already affecting employment and tax revenue in tourism-dependent regions.
“The tourism sector is labour-intensive and a major employer,” said Usha Haley, professor of management at Wichita State University. “Lower hotel occupancy reduces labour demand, cuts tax collection, and pressures municipal finances.”
Border states such as New York, Florida, and Washington report weaker hospitality revenues. The United States, once boasting a travel trade surplus, now faces a projected $70 billion US deficit as more Americans travel abroad than international visitors arrive.
Political Tensions and Traveller Sentiment
Many Canadians cite political reasons for staying away. An Angus Reid Institute poll of 1,607 respondents found 70 per cent are uncomfortable visiting the U.S. this winter, citing the trade dispute, border restrictions, and the current political climate.
Since April, new registration rules have also discouraged long-stay visitors, requiring Canadians spending more than 29 days in the U.S. to register, provide fingerprints, and pay a $30 US fee.
Canadians Seek Alternatives
Canadian “snowbirds” who once flocked to Florida are now choosing destinations such as Costa Rica, Turks and Caicos, China, and Taiwan.
Toronto resident Rena Hans, a long-time Florida property owner, said she will not return while the Trump administration remains in power.
“I can’t vote in the U.S., but I can vote with my dollars,” she said.
Border Communities Respond
Tourism agencies near the Canadian border are attempting to rebuild interest. Discover Kalispell, in northwest Montana, has introduced a Canadian Welcome Pass offering up to 26 per cent discounts at hotels and restaurants through January 15, 2026.
“We’ve missed our Canadian guests,” said Diane Mettler, the organization’s executive director. “This is our way of showing they’re still welcome.”
Outlook: Recovery May Take Time
Analysts expect a modest recovery in 2026, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup and the U.S. 250th anniversary celebrations. However, experts caution that rebuilding confidence among Canadian travellers will take longer if political and border tensions persist.
“As long as policies make visitors feel unwelcome, restoring trust will take far more effort than losing it did,” Haley noted.
