Toronto Housing Hits Alarmingly Low Levels
Toronto’s housing construction is falling far short of targets in 2025, according to a new report. The city, along with 22 of 34 municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, received failing grades for housing starts. Researchers warn that without immediate action, the region faces a bleak outlook for the housing industry.
The study, conducted by the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative and commissioned by the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), compared housing starts from January to June 2025 against the same period over the past four years.
Housing Starts Decline Sharply
The findings were troubling. Overall housing starts in the region dropped 40 per cent, with condo apartments leading the decline at 54 per cent. Toronto fared worse, showing a 58 per cent drop in housing starts. Condo apartments in the city fell by 80 per cent, from nearly 8,000 units on average to just 1,606 in the first half of 2025.
The city is currently 67 per cent behind its provincial housing target, leaving nearly 10,000 units unbuilt.
Economic Impact of Slowed Construction
RESCON warns that the slower pace of construction has broad consequences. In Toronto alone, an estimated 10,209 construction jobs were lost, contributing to a regional decline of roughly 24,195 jobs across the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
“Housing projects have stalled, and the outlook is bleak,” said RESCON President Richard Lyall. “Governments must act to reduce the tax burden and modernize processes to kick-start construction. Our economy cannot afford delays.”
Municipal Housing Grades
The report graded 34 municipalities on their housing performance:
Failing (F): 22 municipalities, including Toronto, Vaughan, Whitby, and Guelph
D: Five municipalities, including Mississauga, Markham, and Niagara Falls
C or higher: Seven municipalities, with Milton and Brantford earning top marks
While rental apartment construction showed modest gains (up 8%), other categories declined by 42 per cent overall.
Pre-Construction Sales Indicate Further Weakness
Researchers note that housing starts are a lagging indicator, measured only when foundations are complete. Meanwhile, pre-construction sales have plummeted: condo sales fell 89 per cent, and ground-oriented units dropped 70 per cent.
“These trends show Ontario’s housing challenges will deepen before improving,” the report warns.
Toronto as the Epicentre of the Problem
A recent CMHC report echoed these concerns, calling Toronto the “epicentre of weakness” for residential construction. Housing starts are on track for the city’s lowest annual total in three decades.
Economist Mike Moffatt of the Missing Middle Initiative emphasized, “All three levels of government must act now. Housing starts are falling, and new home sales signal even further declines.”
The Broader Outlook
RESCON and researchers agree that immediate, concrete policy changes are essential. Reducing regulatory hurdles, incentivizing development, and modernizing planning processes could help reverse the current downward trend. Without action, Toronto and surrounding municipalities face a deepening housing crisis, job losses, and a strained construction sector.
The Takeaway
Toronto’s housing market is struggling, and the Greater Golden Horseshoe faces serious construction declines in 2025. Prompt government action is critical to prevent a worsening crisis.
Stay tuned to Maple Wire for ongoing updates on housing developments and industry trends.
