Prime Minister Mark Carney has set an ambitious target to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports over the next decade, warning that the country can no longer depend on its southern neighbour for economic stability.
Speaking in Toronto ahead of his government’s Nov. 4 budget release, Carney said that decades of deep integration with the U.S. economy have left Canada vulnerable to tariffs and policy swings.
“Many of our former strengths — based on close ties to America — have become vulnerabilities,” Carney said. “We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner.”
U.S. tariffs strain key Canadian industries
Carney’s remarks follow escalating trade tensions with the U.S., where President Donald Trump has imposed or threatened new tariffs on autos, steel, lumber, and aluminum, while claiming Canada could be “the 51st state.”
“The jobs of workers in our industries most affected by U.S. tariffs — autos, steel, lumber — are under threat,” Carney said. “Our businesses are holding back investments, restrained by uncertainty.”
He added that the U.S. has “fundamentally changed its approach to trade,” with tariff levels now comparable to those seen during the Great Depression.
Diversifying toward Asia and emerging markets
Carney said his government will pursue aggressive export diversification, naming India and China as top priorities for new trade and investment.
More than 75% of Canada’s exports currently go to the U.S., and the country’s free trade agreement is up for review in 2026, adding further uncertainty to cross-border commerce.
Canada’s energy and resource leverage
Calling Canada an “energy superpower,” Carney highlighted the nation’s global ranking — third in oil reserves and fourth in natural gas — and its strategic importance to the U.S.
60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada
85% of U.S. electricity imports are Canadian
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum, and uranium to the U.S.
Carney also pointed to Canada’s 34 critical minerals sought by the Pentagon, underscoring Ottawa’s continued leverage in strategic materials.
‘Transformation will take sacrifice’
Carney cautioned that the shift away from U.S. dependence won’t be easy.
“We won’t transform our economy easily or in a few months — it will take sacrifices and time,” he said.
Despite some easing of tensions in recent months, Canada’s prime minister signalled that the era of one-sided reliance on the U.S. economy is over, marking a decisive turn in Canada’s trade and foreign policy strategy.
