Both the Conservative and NDP caucuses are in tense internal discussions over whether to vote down Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget, a move that could topple the minority Liberal government and trigger an election before Christmas, multiple sources told CBC News.
Senior Conservative insiders say the party does not want an election right now, but it also won’t back the budget, fearing the political cost of supporting a Liberal agenda.
“Speculation about the Liberals potentially losing the budget vote is not contrived,” said one senior Conservative source, noting that as of now, the government lacks the votes to pass the budget when it’s tabled Tuesday.
Conservatives Demand Cuts, NDP Divided
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has issued a list of demands — including scrapping the industrial carbon tax and keeping the deficit below $42 billion — but the government has already dismissed them.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has made its own expensive asks, including higher Old Age Security payments and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers, demands the Liberals are unlikely to meet.
Government sources say Ottawa has offered minor concessions to the Bloc, such as a crackdown on a tax-evasion scheme in the trucking industry, to secure additional votes.
The NDP caucus remains deeply divided. A senior NDP source and two Conservative insiders say the most likely outcome is that some NDP MPs abstain, allowing the budget to pass without full NDP endorsement.
“The NDP caucus isn’t aligned — they function without much structure,” said one Conservative strategist. “That could make it easier to convince individual MPs to back the budget.”
Tense Strategy Behind Closed Doors
At Wednesday’s Conservative caucus meeting, MPs were instructed not to attack the NDP publicly — a notable departure from the party’s pre-election tactics.
“Avoid criticizing the NDP for now,” MPs were told, according to two Conservative sources.
The Liberals currently hold a narrow minority and need three extra votes — or two, if the Speaker breaks a tie — to survive.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has said she will oppose any budget that includes fossil fuel subsidies, but will otherwise wait to review the document.
Election Talk Looms
If the Liberals can’t secure enough votes, the government could fall and Canadians could head to the polls for the second federal election in under a year.
Despite the high stakes, both the Conservatives and the NDP are reluctant. The NDP is cash-strapped, leaderless, and still recovering from its worst electoral showing in decades after propping up the last Liberal minority.
Interim leader Don Davies has demanded “targeted investments for working families” and no austerity cuts, aligning with his call for affordable homes, public health-care investment, and good jobs.
“We can’t accept an austerity approach,” Davies told Power & Politics. “We’re going to wait and see what the budget says.”
Liberal Pleas to Avoid ‘Ruining Christmas’
In the Commons Thursday, Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon urged Conservatives to avoid forcing an early vote.
“Tell your grinchy leader to vote for the budget,” MacKinnon said. “Don’t ruin Christmas — build Canada strong.”
With Parliament poised for a decisive test next week, the fate of Carney’s first budget — and possibly his government — now rests on a few wavering MPs and a handful of abstentions.
