Researchers revise wildfire smoke-dementia study after coding error, finding weaker, non-significant link. Experts call for further investigation.
Study Revised After Coding Mistake Discovered
A prominent 2023 study linking wildfire smoke to a heightened risk of dementia has been retracted and republished after researchers uncovered a coding error that impacted the original findings. The corrected analysis, by JAMA Neurology, now shows a weaker and statistically non-significant link between long-term wildfire smoke exposure and dementia.
Correction Alters Initial Conclusions
Researchers initially reported that a small increase in fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke—PM2.5—over three years was associated with an 18% rise in dementia diagnoses. However, after correcting a coding error involving a misused logical operator, the estimated risk has been revised to about 12%, a reduction that renders the result statistically insignificant.
“It was a very small error in thousands of lines of code,” said Joan Casey, an environmental health scientist at the University of Washington and co-author of the study. “But the corrected data now tells a more nuanced story.”
Findings Still Suggest Possible Association
Despite the statistical downgrade, scientists say the new data still points toward a possible association between wildfire smoke exposure and cognitive decline. Scott Weichenthal, a McGill University epidemiologist unaffiliated with the study, said the updated results remain relevant.
“The data still suggests there’s a positive association—just not as strong,” Weichenthal said. “And this area of research is still very much in development.”
Wildfire Smoke’s Health Effects Under Scrutiny
The corrected study adds to a growing body of research examining the health effects of air pollution. While links between air pollution and dementia have been widely studied, researchers are only beginning to isolate the effects of specific pollution sources like wildfires.
Earlier studies have hinted that smoke from agricultural and forest fires may contribute to cognitive decline, but the evidence remains limited and inconclusive. Researchers caution that long-term effects on brain health are less understood than those on cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
More Research Needed to Understand Risk
Experts emphasize the importance of continued research, particularly as wildfires become more frequent and severe in North America.
“We don’t have the same level of data for neurological impacts that we do for heart and lung health,” said Weichenthal. “That makes it essential to keep studying this.”
With wildfire seasons intensifying due to climate change, understanding their long-term effects on human health remains a pressing scientific and public health priority.
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