New Brunswick’s hospitals face a record senior care crisis after 30 years of ignored warnings on aging population and insufficient home care investments.
Record Wait-Lists Signal Long-Anticipated Crisis
Hospitals across New Brunswick are facing unprecedented strain as wait-lists for nursing home beds surge past 600 patients — a breaking point decades in the making. Despite repeated expert warnings dating back to the early 1990s, governments failed to scale home care or build enough long-term care infrastructure to keep pace with the province’s rapidly aging population.
Decades of Reports, Little Political Action
The first major warning came in 1991 with a provincial report forecasting a sharp rise in seniors needing care. Then-premier Frank McKenna’s government emphasized the urgency of expanding home care to avoid costly and inappropriate hospital admissions. That prediction proved accurate — yet successive administrations, regardless of party, largely failed to act on the findings.
“We’re well behind the eight ball,” Premier Susan Holt admitted at a July 17 press conference, adding that governments had repeatedly delayed critical reforms.
Hospitals Buckle as Beds Fill with Non-Acute Patients
This summer, health authorities like Horizon Health Network publicly pleaded for relief. More than 650 patients currently occupy hospital beds despite not needing acute care, unable to access placement in long-term care homes. Emergency rooms are being overwhelmed, with care being delivered in hallways and lounges.
“These are far from ideal conditions for patients, families, and staff,” said Horizon CEO Margaret Melanson. The provincial government has temporarily prioritized these patients for long-term care admissions — but only for 30 days.
Seniors’ Numbers Soar Beyond Forecasts
In 2006, seniors made up 13.1% of the population. Today, they comprise nearly 23%, or over 196,000 residents — already surpassing forecasts set for 2026. Despite these figures, political leaders focused more on shifting who pays for nursing care than on expanding access to it. Liberal and Conservative premiers alike debated asset exemptions, while the home care system remained neglected.
“This has been coming for 30 years,” said Cecile Cassista of the Coalition for Seniors and Nursing Home Residents’ Rights. “They only jump on it when there’s a crisis.”
Failed Attempts at Systemic Reform
Only one recent attempt aimed at meaningful transformation: in 2019, Blaine Higgs’s government tried to convert six rural emergency rooms into alternative-level care units. Public backlash forced a swift reversal. Since then, efforts to ease pressure have been minimal. The province’s own goal, outlined in Premier Holt’s January address, is to simply hold the waiting list steady at 1,088 patients until 2028 — an admission of how steep the challenge has become.
A Modest Step: Care Without Walls Program
To offer some relief, the province is expanding the “Nursing Homes Without Walls” program. Initially introduced under the previous government, it delivers nursing-home-style services directly to seniors in their homes. Advocates hope it can reduce hospital stays and slow wait-list growth, but Premier Holt acknowledged the scope of the problem.
“With current demographic projections, the number of people waiting for beds will rise exponentially,” she said. “The best we believe we can do is reduce that exponential increase.”
A Cautionary Tale of Inaction
New Brunswick now stands as a stark example of what happens when long-term demographic forecasts are ignored. Experts say preventing the crisis from worsening may be the most realistic near-term goal — a grim benchmark after more than three decades of warnings.
“This isn’t a surprise,” said Florence Parks, a retired care worker. “It’s a failure to act — and now everyone’s paying the price.”
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