Canada’s Military Needs Thousands More Soldiers, Says Defence Analyst
As Canada commits to spending 5% of its GDP on defence by 2035, one military expert says money alone won’t fix the problem. The real issue? A serious lack of personnel.
Retired Major-General David Fraser, now a CTV military analyst, says the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is short around 16,000 members, a gap that will take years—not months—to fill. In an interview with CTV Your Morning, he explained that unless internal reorganization happens fast, the government’s ambitious spending goals won’t be enough.
New NATO Targets Raise the Stakes
The pressure is mounting globally. NATO recently raised its defence spending benchmark to 5% of GDP, with all members—except Spain—signing on. In response, Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to reach 2% by the end of this fiscal year, marking a major step toward future increases.
Still, boosting budget allocations is only one side of the equation. The other, Fraser notes, is ensuring that Canada has the personnel and training infrastructure to meet these new global expectations.
Recruitment Is Rising—But Not Fast Enough
Recent numbers suggest some progress. Between April 2024 and March 2025, the Department of National Defence (DND) enrolled more than 6,700 new CAF members, surpassing its goal of 6,496. That’s a 55% increase over the previous year and the best result in a decade.
However, reaching the 2030 goal of 71,500 regular force members and 30,000 reservists will require more than just headline numbers. According to Fraser, many experienced soldiers will need to be re-tasked into training and project management roles to help shape the incoming wave of recruits.
The Retention Challenge: Why Soldiers Are Leaving
Recruitment may be rising, but retention is slipping. More than 5,000 members exited the military in 2024, following over 4,200 departures in 2023. Fraser argues that long delays in training pipelines are partly to blame.
Right now, it can take up to a year for new enlistees to be formally brought into the military, followed by two to three years of training. This lag discourages many from continuing, especially when they can find faster opportunities in the private sector.
Younger Canadians Reluctant to Enlist
An Angus Reid study released last week revealed that only 50% of Canadians would be willing to fight in a conflict. The numbers are even lower among younger people: just 43% of 18-to-34-year-olds said they could see themselves in a combat role.
Fraser believes the CAF must tailor its messaging to attract this demographic. “You’ve gotta listen to what that target population is looking for in the way of a job,” he said. Competing with private industry means offering more than patriotism—it means appealing to lifestyle, tech, and family balance.
Bases, Equipment, and Quality of Life Matter
Fraser stresses that if the military wants to bring people in—and keep them—it must modernize its infrastructure. Many CAF bases and facilities are “stuck in the 1950s,” he says, failing to meet the needs of modern families.
To improve quality of life, the military must provide better housing, schooling, healthcare access, and support for dual-income families. “Family disruption is a big thing,” Fraser noted, especially in an era where both partners often work full-time.
The same modernization needs to apply to gear. Cutting-edge tools like F-35 fighter jets, drones, and next-gen vehicles are crucial, not just for performance but for attracting recruits who want to work with the latest technology.
What’s Next for Canada’s Military?
With a renewed global focus on defence spending and strategic readiness, Canada stands at a critical crossroads. If the government hopes to meet its 5% of GDP by 2035 defence pledge, it must address three big challenges:
Personnel shortages
Outdated infrastructure
A slow and overstretched training system
“The forces have got to streamline the processes that they currently have into what we actually need,” Fraser concluded. It’s not just about money—it’s about rebuilding from within.
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