Mark Carney’s two-day blitz through British Columbia may be over, but the ripple effects are just beginning. According to a new poll, the Liberals are making gains in B.C. not seen since the height of Pierre Trudeau’s charisma wave in 1968.
Liberals Hit Historic Highs—While NDP Support Craters
In a political twist that has surprised many, the federal Liberals now lead B.C. voting intentions with 44% support, according to a Research Co. survey. That’s a six-point lead over the Conservatives and even higher than the party’s 2015 “comeback” performance.
“We have to go back to 1968 to find numbers like this,”
said Research Co. President Mario Canseco, referring to the original Trudeau-mania moment.
The poll marks a monumental shift in the province’s political landscape—especially considering NDP support in B.C. has plummeted to just 8%, putting the party at risk of losing several long-standing ridings, particularly on Vancouver Island.
Vancouver Island Turns Into a Battleground—But Not the Way You’d Expect
What was once a secure New Democratic stronghold could soon become a three-way toss-up.
- In the south, Liberals are surging. Carney recently campaigned in Victoria and Saanich-Gulf Islands, hoping to convert disaffected NDP and Green voters.
- In the north, the NDP’s freefall could inadvertently help the Conservatives pick up seats—candidates like Aaron Gunn are hoping the Liberal uptick will split the vote just enough.
“Surging Liberals may unintentionally help the Tories by undercutting the NDP,”
said Canseco. “That’s the wildcard in the north.”
Strategic Voting in Focus as Carney Courts NDP and Green Voters
Carney isn’t just chasing Conservative ridings—he’s deliberately targeting NDP and Green constituencies by offering centrist policies on climate, housing, and trade. The Liberals sense an opening to build a majority government, bolstered by polling strength in Ontario and Quebec.
Meanwhile, the Green Party’s foothold on Vancouver Island is under threat as Carney tours their strongholds, and the NDP’s survival depends on four Vancouver Island incumbents holding off the Liberal wave.
Canada-U.S. Relations Emerging as Top Election Issue
According to the poll, 31% of voters now rank U.S.-Canada relations as the most important election issue—eclipsing jobs, housing, and even health care. The concern is highest among Canadians aged 55+, a demographic Carney appears to be winning over.
Canseco says the issue has become a referendum on Trump’s influence in North America.
“Older voters are completely galvanized by the Trump factor,”
said Canseco. “And that plays right into Carney’s hands.”
In contrast, Poilievre’s appeal to younger voters isn’t enough to build a national victory. And with Trump softening his tone toward Canada under Carney’s leadership, the Conservative narrative about international disrespect is becoming harder to sell.
Bottom Line: Liberal Red Rising, but Consequences May Be Mixed
The Liberal surge in B.C. is real—but it’s not a clean sweep. On Vancouver Island, rising Liberal support might fracture progressive votes, giving Conservatives unexpected openings. And while Carney is building momentum, both his party and his opponents will be watching closely to see how that momentum translates at the ballot box.
Election Day: April 28. Watch this space—because B.C. might be the ultimate wildcard.
