Ontario’s plan for 1.5M new homes by 2031 is faltering. Budget data shows a shortfall that questions the feasibility of Premier Ford’s housing promise.
Ontario’s Housing Ambitions Face Harsh Reality
Despite its goal to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031, Ontario’s latest budget suggests the province is significantly off track — and running out of time. With sluggish construction forecasts and no major policy shifts, critics are sounding the alarm on the Ford government’s housing strategy.
A Widening Gap Between Target and Reality
In the three years since Ontario set its 1.5 million home goal, only 260,000 housing starts have occurred. Projections for the next three years are modest:
- 71,800 homes in 2025
- 74,800 in 2026
- 82,500 in 2027
That means by the halfway mark in 2026, Ontario will be just one-quarter of the way to its goal — leaving the final five years to make up the remaining 1.1 million homes, or over 218,000 homes per year, more than double the current annual pace.
Critics Say the Government Has “Given Up”
Housing advocates are not convinced the Ford government is serious about its housing commitments.
Eric Lombardi, president of More Neighbours Toronto, criticized the budget’s housing measures as “ineffective,” suggesting the province has “given up on its own goals.”
Although the budget adds $400 million to municipal infrastructure programs and $50 million to modular housing capacity, there are no major overhauls to the core of the housing plan — the Building Faster Fund.
Funding Lags, Municipalities Fall Short
The Building Faster Fund promised $1.2 billion over three years, but in its first year (2024), only $280 million was distributed. Over half of Ontario’s municipalities failed to meet their housing benchmarks in 2023.
Adding to the concern, the government’s housing tracker hasn’t been updated since October 2024. CBC News sought clarity on this delay but received no response from Housing Minister Rob Flack’s office.
Government Blames Tariffs, Critics Cite Long-Standing Issues
Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy placed much of the blame on global economic pressures and new U.S. tariffs, stating:
“Tariffs have impacted housing starts around the world.”
Yet, the decline predates these new tariffs. The 2024 forecast was for 87,900 housing starts — the actual number was just 74,600. Moreover, the government includes long-term care beds in its home count, inflating the numbers slightly.
Federal Support May Be a Lifeline
Bethlenfalvy expressed optimism about greater federal collaboration under new Prime Minister Mark Carney, saying he expects less red tape and more funding for housing from Ottawa.
The Ontario Real Estate Association praised the budget’s “pro-housing” direction, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner condemned the government’s lack of progress and ambition.
With a timeline closing in and housing needs growing rapidly, Ontario’s path to 1.5 million homes looks increasingly uncertain. Without significant changes in strategy and execution, the province’s bold promise may remain just that — a promise.
