Leaked government briefings reveal Ontario will miss its 2030 climate goal—contradicting the environment minister’s public claims.
Minister Briefed on Target Shortfall in March
Internal briefing documents show that Ontario is not on track to meet its 2030 climate target, despite public claims from Environment Minister Todd McCarthy that the province is leading on emissions reduction. The contradiction was revealed through records obtained via a freedom of information request.
Targeted Reductions Fall Short in Projections
Ontario has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. That goal translates to reaching 142 megatonnes of emissions. However, the ministry’s own projections—provided to McCarthy upon taking office—predict the province will only reduce emissions to approximately 145 megatonnes, missing the mark by 3 megatonnes.
Public Statements Contradicted by Data
In the legislature on June 5, McCarthy responded to questions from NDP environment critic Peter Tabuns by stating: “We are on track to meet the target by 2030… We are leading Canada.” His office later doubled down, saying Ontario is a leader in emissions reductions and committed to protecting the environment. But no response addressed the internal findings that dispute those claims.
Government’s Climate Record Under Scrutiny
Environmental advocates and opposition leaders argue the findings highlight a deeper issue: a lack of transparency and an underwhelming climate strategy. Tabuns questioned whether McCarthy was unaware of his own briefing notes or misleading the public. “It’s a real problem,” he said. “Even meeting this weak target would be inadequate.”
Key Policies Cited as Contributing Factors
Since 2018, the Ford government has cancelled Ontario’s cap-and-trade system, paused renewable energy projects, and invested heavily in new highway infrastructure. Critics, including Greenpeace Canada, say these decisions have made progress on climate goals nearly impossible. “They’ve never taken climate change seriously,” said Greenpeace’s Keith Stewart.
Federal and Global Context Increases Pressure
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner linked the issue to broader environmental failures, calling the government’s climate plan “inadequate from the start.” With wildfires and extreme weather intensifying across Canada, Schreiner said Ontarians are already paying the price.
Meanwhile, the ministry is reviewing its emissions performance standards program amid concerns over U.S. trade threats and evolving federal policy. Parts of the review detailing potential risks were redacted in the documents.
Experts Demand Renewed Commitment
Aliénor Rougeot of Environmental Defence called the documents “alarming,” urging the government to reinvest in transit, green energy, and building retrofits. “If they hope this issue will go away, it’s a serious miscalculation,” she said. “Young Canadians are watching—and they’re angry.”
Less Than Five Years Remain
With just over four years left until the 2030 deadline, environmental groups, economists, and opposition parties are calling for immediate course correction. Without new initiatives, Ontario is poised to miss even its modest climate goals—leaving long-term impacts on both the environment and public trust.
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