Alberta Prosperity Project claims independence could yield a $45B surplus in year one. Experts raise concerns about projections and economic assumptions.
Alberta Group Releases Bold Fiscal Vision for Independence
On Thursday, the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) unveiled a detailed draft fiscal plan projecting a massive budget surplus within the first year of Alberta’s separation from Canada. Titled The Value of Freedom, the document claims Alberta’s economy could double in size over two decades of independence, driven by reduced federal contributions, tax cuts, and expanded oil production.
Surplus Projections and Key Economic Assumptions
The plan outlines an estimated $23.6 to $45.5 billion annual surplus after separation, primarily from halting federal equalization payments—estimated savings of up to $47 billion. APP co-founder Jeff Rath presented the findings in Calgary, emphasizing that these numbers reflect conservative scenarios based on public data from Statistics Canada, the Alberta government, and major accounting firms.
However, economic experts have cast doubt on the projections. Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, said, “There are a lot of unknowns. Setting up independent institutions would likely cost more than anticipated.”
Ambitious Tax Cuts and Oil Forecasts Raise Eyebrows
The draft proposes tax cuts of up to 55% and deregulation for businesses, alongside aggressive expansion in oil and gas production. It suggests production could reach 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045—nearly triple the current forecast by S&P Global for 2025.
St-Arnaud criticized this assumption as overly optimistic, especially since the plan pegs oil at $85 a barrel while current prices remain below $70. Despite this, Rath claimed the estimates were “extremely conservative” and designed to reflect the least optimistic outcome.
Academic and Public Concerns Over Viability
Political science professor Lisa Young from the University of Calgary noted the plan does acknowledge fluctuating oil demand. Still, she questioned the absence of detailed contingency measures and deeper economic analysis.
“The document lacks robust modelling on real-world impacts,” she said. “Have they considered the frictional costs of separation or the economic impact of population decline if people choose to leave?”
Pensions, Currency, and Fiscal Risk
A key component of the plan is the proposed Alberta Pension Plan, which would seek $167 billion from the Canada Pension Plan by 2026, based on a 2023 LifeWorks report. Rath also stated Alberta would reduce pension contributions while doubling payouts—claims economists warn are risky.
St-Arnaud highlighted a critical error in the APP’s methodology: including pension fund returns in government revenue estimates. “That’s not standard fiscal accounting,” he said. “Pension funds are separate entities.”
Additionally, the APP proposes initially adopting the U.S. dollar before transitioning to a new Alberta currency—raising questions about stability and financial impacts on households and businesses.
Reaction to Competing Petition and Referendum Plans
Rath also dismissed a separate campaign by former PC MLA Thomas Lukaszuk advocating for Alberta to remain in Canada. The Forever Canada initiative, which seeks to present its own referendum question, was labeled “a bad joke” by Rath.
He emphasized the APP’s planned referendum will be a constitutional challenge, separate from policy-based petitions. Elections Alberta permits both types of questions to proceed under existing rules.
Looking Ahead
While the APP’s plan paints an ambitious picture of Alberta’s economic future post-independence, significant doubts remain over its feasibility and assumptions. As the province edges closer to a possible referendum, the debate over separation—fueled by bold promises and complex risks—continues to deepen.
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